krabička cigariet)
Economic data in December showed that both domestic and external demand continued to grow steadily. Celkový maloobchodný predaj spotrebného tovaru medziročne vzrástol o 7,4 % (november: +10,1 %). Excluding the low base factor at the end of 2022, the two-year average growth rate in that month was +2.7% (November: +1.8%). The growth of automobile and catering consumption is still relatively strong, with the two-year average growth rate in December reaching +7.9% and +5.7% respectively, while consumption in other categories has also improved (the two-year average growth rate in December bola +0,8 % av novembri +0,0 %). The export value in December was +2.3% year-on-year, further accelerating from November (+0.5%). As the papermaking industry gradually enters the off-season, the prices of pulp and paper products have generally declined recently. However, we believe that the current steady growth in demand is relatively stable. As the strong supply growth in 2022-2023 is gradually digested and new production capacity is generally reduced in 2024, the industry is gradually approaching the inflection point of supply and demand balance.
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The price of box board and corrugated paper increased by 50-100 yuan/ton in December, but this round of price recovery did not go smoothly. Leading companies offered rebate discounts during the New Year's Day holiday and continued to implement them thereafter, driving the overall market price to fall since 2024. The unfavorable price recovery during the peak stocking season before the Spring Festival reflects that the supply and demand relationship in the priemysel je stále relatívne krehký. The CIF price of imported kraft paper continued to rise slightly in December. The price advantage over domestic kraft paper has been at its smallest level since the beginning of 2023. The growth of imported finished paper is expected to slow down. Although the current supply-demand relationship remains weak, as supply expansion slows down, we expect that rebalancing industry supply and demand will become less difficult to achieve.
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Since late December, the price of white cardboard has turned from rising to falling. As of January 17, the price dropped by 84 yuan/ton (1.6%) compared with the end of 2023. Thanks to the more active downstream inventory replenishment, the average inventory of manufacturing companies has dropped to 18 days (24 days in the same Obdobie v roku 2023). We expect that driven by the trends of “replacing plastic with paper” and “replacing gray with white”, the demand for white cardboard is expected to maintain strong growth. With supply growth declining in 2024, the contradiction between supply and demand for white cardboard is expected to ease in stages. However, in the medium to long term, investment enthusiasm in the field of white cardboard is still high. Od decembra dva projekty s ročnou kapacitou viac ako 1 milión ton ročne, Jiangsu Asia Pacific Senbo Phase II a Hainan Jinhai, oznámili predbežný pokrok. If the follow-up progress goes smoothly, six large-scale million-ton projects for white cardboard.
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Since the end of 2023, the price of cultural paper has fallen faster. As of January 17, the price of offset paper has dropped by 265 yuan/ton (4.4%) compared with the end of 2023, which is the largest decline among major paper types since the beginning of the year. Manufacturer inventory also rose to 24.4 days (25.0 days in the same period in 2023), which is at a historical high for the same period. Due to the concentrated release of production capacity in late 2023 and early 2024, the replenishment of inventory by downstream users in 2023, and the concentrated release of demand brought about by the recovery of travel, it may be difficult to replicate in 2024. Cultural paper môže byť hlavným typom papiera s najvážnejšími výzvami v 1H24.
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Starting from 2022, Chinese country's paper industry will set off a wave of expansion. Paper companies such as Nine Dragons Paper, Sun Paper, Xianhe Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper have all invested in tens of billions of projects, pushing the wave of production expansion to its peak. [Očakáva sa, že toto kolo rozšírenia výroby od roku 2022 do roku 2024 bude zahŕňať 7,8 milióna ton novej výrobnej kapacity. Spomedzi nich bude v roku 2024 vybudovaných najmenej 5 miliónov ton výrobných kapacít na výrobu papiera. ]
It is worth noting that the aforementioned production capacity data are all project planned production capacities. Considering that it generally takes about two years for a paper-making project to reach production after being put into operation, the aforementioned 5 million tons of production capacity cannot be fully implemented this year. However, at the moment when demand is weak, any “turbulence” on the supply side is enough to affect the psychology of downstream buyers, thereby forming an expectation that base paper will be “difficult to rise but easy to fall”, exacerbating the pressure na dodávateľských papierenských spoločnostiach.
Toto kolo expanzie je viac zamerané na budúcnosť a zachytenie ukazovateľov výrobnej kapacity. „Väčšina nových výrobných kapacít je sústredená v Guangxi a Hubei. Je veľmi pravdepodobné, že iba tieto miesta môžu získať schválenie projektu (ukazovatele).“ It is reported that in the statement of the relevant paper companies, These two provinces can radiate the South China and East China markets and both have certain pulp resources. Môžu stavať podporné linky na výrobu buničiny a majú pohodlnú dopravu. It is expected that the project will have a greater advantage on the cost side.
But in the short term, the sudden arrival of the peak period of capacity release will undoubtedly intensify the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand in the paper industry. A person from a listed paper company told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press that some investment institutions have expressed similar concerns, but from the perspective of paper companies, there is a lot of room for control on how to control the progress of project construction and výroby. “It is unlikely that there will be a downturn in market demand.” At this time, companies are focusing on releasing new production capacity.“
Jinsheng Environmental Protection recently announced that for development needs, the company has invested in the construction of an environmentally friendly pulp molded products project with an annual output of 40,000 tons in Xingwen County Economic Development Zone, Sichuan Province. The total investment in the project is 400 million yuan, including 305 million yuan in fixed assets investment. Pracovný kapitál je 95 miliónov juanov. It is planned to be constructed in two phases, of which the first phase will invest approximately 197.2626 million yuan to build a plant fiber molded product production line with an annual output of 17,000 tons. The project is planned to be completed within 4 years
Celková výmera pozemku projektu je cca 100 árov. After the project is completed, it is expected to achieve sales revenue of 560 million yuan, profit of 98.77 million yuan, and taxes of 24.02 million yuan. Po dokončení prvej fázy boli dosiahnuté tržby vo výške 238 miliónov juanov a zisk 27,84 miliónov juanov.
Základné informácie o investičných cieľoch(krabička cigariet):
Registrovaná adresa: č. 5, Taiping East Road, Gusong Town, Xingwen County, Yibin City, provincia Sichuan
Hlavná činnosť: Všeobecné projekty: služby propagácie nových materiálových technológií; výroba trávy a súvisiacich produktov; výroba biologických materiálov; predaj materiálov na báze bio; dovoz a vývoz tovaru; Výroba bambusových výrobkov; Predaj bambusových výrobkov. (Except for projects that require approval according to law, business activities can be carried out independently with a business license in accordance with the law) Licensed projects: production of sanitary products and disposable medical supplies; výroba plastových obalových nádob a nástrojov pre potraviny; výroba papierových obalov a obalových výrobkov pre potraviny. (Projects that require approval according to law can only be carried out with the approval of relevant departments. Specific business projects shall be subject to the approval documents or licenses of relevant departments).
According to data from Huabei.com, Jinsheng Environmental Protection's main products and services are general items: manufacturing of grass and related products; manufacturing of bio-based materials; sales of bio-based materials; Služby propagácie nových materiálových technológií; a dovoz a vývoz tovaru. Licensed projects: production of sanitary products and disposable medical products; production of paper packaging and container products for food; production of plastic packaging, container and tool products for food.
Čas príspevku: apríl-28-2024